By Laura Ortega, Executive Director, International Business, Illinois Chamber of Commerce
On February 27, 2026, the Illinois Chamber’s International Business Council convened global economists, diplomats, and business leaders at Instituto Cervantes of Chicago for the 2026 Global Trade Outlook, our annual event examining the forces reshaping international commerce. Hosted in partnership with Wintrust Financial, this year’s program opened with remarks from Manuel Valenzuela (Director, Instituto Cervantes), Peter A. Steinmeyer (Illinois Chamber Exec Board.), and Laura Ortega (Director, International Business Council), who introduced the theme “Global Trade at a Crossroad: Geopolitics, Fragmentation, and the Rise of AI” and underscored the Chamber’s role in connecting Illinois to global markets.
Keynote Highlights: A World of Shifting Rules, Not Shrinking Trade.
Dr. Phil Levy, Lead Economist at the World Bank, delivered a rigorous keynote outlining three forces defining today’s global landscape: intensifying geoeconomic, geopolitical, and policy fragmentation; rising uncertainty driven by tariff volatility and regulatory divergence; and resilient globalization despite growing barriers.
He noted that while global trade, FDI, and GDP have not collapsed amid turbulence, their underlying patterns are shifting. Global value chains continue to adapt, with multinational enterprises still accounting for a substantial share of world trading from 40% in 1990 to 64% in 2020.
However, Levy emphasized that policy fragmentation since the WTO’s Uruguay Round has weakened multilateralism, contributed to the rapid expansion of preferential trade agreements, and fueled a surge in trade‑restrictive measures, particularly among large, high‑income economies. The result is more frequent tariff shocks, reduced predictability, and delayed investment and supply‑chain reconfiguration as firms wait for clearer, more durable rules—suggesting that the full impact of recent tariff actions has yet to be realized.
Fireside Chat Insights
Following the keynote, Dr. Venkat Veeramani, Chief Economist at Wintrust Financial, moderated a fireside conversation that expanded to U.S. trade policy direction, tariff dynamics, shifting supply chains, the evolving role of the U.S. dollar amid de‑dollarization, and the influence of AI adoption on global investment patterns. The session underscored the interconnected nature of economic, technological, and policy forces, emphasizing that executives should prepare for policy‑driven volatility while leveraging productivity‑enhancing technologies to offset cost pressures and regulatory frictions.
Global Diplomatic Panel
Diplomatic leaders representing Mexico, ASEAN, the European Union, and Canada translated macro themes into regional strategies and concrete opportunities with Illinois. The panel moderated by Laura Ortega, explored topics such as nearshoring across North America, industrial policy and digital trade growth in Europe, ASEAN’s expanding role in supply‑chain diversification, and opportunities for deeper commercial partnerships across sectors.
Mexico: Nearshoring and USMCA Review
With U.S.–Midwest supply chains deeply interconnected, the discussion focused on nearshoring opportunities and the upcoming USMCA review, emphasizing the need to balance investment attraction with long‑term industrial, workforce, and energy strategies. Illinois stands to benefit from strengthened cross‑border supply chains in automotive/EV components, industrial machinery, food processing, and packaging, contingent on continued infrastructure upgrades and a clear, predictable regulatory framework.
Canada / Québec: Connectivity and Clean‑Energy Integration
Conversation highlighted how Canada and Québec are positioning for growth amid evolving U.S.–Canada policy alignment and potential USMCA outcomes. Priority areas include transportation corridors, clean‑energy integration, critical minerals, and cross‑border data flows supporting advanced manufacturing and AI. Illinois–Québec opportunities span battery supply chains, grid modernization, ag‑tech, and aerospace, enabled by regulatory coherence and practical approaches to economic‑security goals.
European Union / Portugal: De‑Risking and Standards Leadership
Against continued geopolitical and energy pressures, the EU discussion centered on aligning industrial policy with open‑market commitments while pursuing calibrated de‑risking. Opportunities for Illinois and EU partners—including Portugal—lie in standards collaboration, clean‑tech and clean energy investments, medical devices and life sciences partnerships, and digital‑trade enablement. Illinois’ strengths in R&D, universities, and logistics position the state as a valuable partner in innovation consortia and deployment testbeds.
ASEAN / Philippines: Economic Security and Diversification
With the Philippines chairing ASEAN in 2026, priorities include strengthening economic security, improving infrastructure, and enhancing regulatory transparency to maintain strategic neutrality while deepening regional integration. For Illinois firms, growth areas include agriculture and food systems, cold‑chain logistics, industrial tech, health tech, and smart‑port solutions. ASEAN partners emphasized the need for capacity‑building, clearer market‑entry guidance, and pilot projects that generate demonstrable commercial outcomes.
This year’s Global Trade Outlook provided the nearly one hundred attendees with valuable insights and new connections. As Dr. Levy noted, trade and FDI remain resilient, but rapidly shifting rules are reshaping where and how firms invest. The prudent response is not retreat but strategic adaptation. Companies best positioned for success will embrace data‑driven decision‑making, invest in operational resilience, and strengthen international partnerships—especially at the sub‑regional level—to turn uncertainty into advantage. Looking ahead, the strong engagement and feedback from participants position this program to grow even further, with increased member support expected to solidify it as a flagship annual initiative of the Illinois Chamber.